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News » News analysis: Can Johnson stay healthy?


News analysis: Can Johnson stay healthy?


News analysis: Can Johnson stay healthy?
Houston Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson (knee) has been a stud since entering the NFL as the third overall pick in the 2003 NFL Draft out of the University of Miami (Fla.).


He's played his entire career with the Texans and has elite fantasy talent. However, he hasn't received enough recognition because the team has struggled to go from expansion status to contending for the playoffs.

The Texans have only been around since 2002. Despite the team's obstacles, though, Johnson has excelled for fantasy owners, and some improved talent around him could solidify his status as a top-tier fantasy wideout. The hope is that he can produce like he did in 2006 (103 receptions) more than once every five years!

He underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left knee May 15 and missed the entire month of organized team activities (OTAs). This was related to the knee injury that forced him to miss seven games in 2007. However, Johnson is expected to be healthy enough for the opening of training camp at the end of July and is still worthy of fantasy consideration in the early rounds.

Natural talent

At 6-foot-3, 222 pounds, Johnson has the size and speed to create nightmares for opposing defensive coordinators. While preparing for the draft in 2003, he was clocked in between a 4.31 and a 4.45 40-yard dash at Miami's Pro Day. He has had a touchdown reception of at least 46 yards in four of his first five seasons.

Hobbled talent

Despite the natural ability, Johnson struggled with a knee injury in 2007, missing seven games. However, before that he had only missed three games in his first four seasons combined. While injury concerns are present, there is no reason to make a mountain out of a molehill.

Johnson has dealt with calf, thigh and hamstring injuries during his career. However, until last year, there was nothing to suggest him being remotely injury-prone so don't buy into anyone telling you that. Never forget: A savvy owner, come draft day or your league's trade deadline, will try to lead you down that road while plucking Johnson for below-market value.

Here's his injury capsule:

In 2005, he suffered a calf injury that caused him to leave a game early and miss three games after that.

In 2007, he suffered a sprained left knee that forced him to miss seven weeks; Weeks 3-9. However, he returned following the team's bye in Week 11 with six receptions for 120 yards and a touchdown.

Surgery worries

The offseason surgery is what has many fantasy owners concerned, but you shouldn't be. As KFFL noted in our Breaking News and Injury Analysis when it happened, he is expected to be back by training camp. Johnson developed a rapport with quarterbacks Matt Schaub and Sage Rosenfels last year, so the OTAs are not crucial to him at this point.

In essence, the knee continued to bother him, but Johnson stated to the Houston Chronicle, there was a little swelling "but nothing major" following the procedure. Surgery became necessary when Johnson aggravated the injury during a minicamp. The knee was scoped and cleaned up; he's expected to be 100 percent when training camp rolls around. That being stated, Johnson's fantasy value is tied more to his skill and the Texans offense than to his injury.

Johnson has been a fantasy stud, anchoring many fantasy rosters despite the fact he has played for an expansion team that struggled with offensive line issues, quarterback play, questionable personnel moves, questionable coaching and more. However, the team has been heading in the right direction under the leadership of head coach Gary Kubiak and general manager Rick Smith.

The continued development of Schaub, who is entering his second season under center, along with a healthy Johnson, figure to be keys to success - both NFL and fantasy! The team is gaining experience and working hard to improve on their chemistry as a group. With Johnson and Schaub working together during training camp they should produce better results.

Fantasy outlook

Johnson is the focal point of the Texans passing game and can quickly change the momentum of a game. He has a career per-game average of 5.3 receptions for 68.6 yards. He averages 12.9 yards per catch and a little better than a touchdown every three games. Those averages extrapolate to 85 receptions, 1,098 yards and six touchdowns over a 16-game season.

We expect him to blow past those numbers this year. We believe he'll see something along the lines of 91 receptions for 1,220 yards with nine touchdowns.

For a more detailed look at Johnson, check him out at in our FREE preseason draft guide for his numbers and analysis!

With the team improving there's no reason to believe he can't improve as well and we believe he will. You will have to pay a price to acquire him, though. Right now using KFFL's Average Draft Position tool, he is going on average (as of Monday, July 14) with the 25th overall pick! That puts him at the top of the third round in 12-team leagues, and the latest he has gone is with the 30th overall selection.

View Johnson as your team's No. 1 fantasy receiver, and he is a player with upside this year. Don't be afraid to pull the trigger on him if you want, but be mindful of taking him too early.



Author:Fox Sports
Author's Website:http://www.foxsports.com
Added: July 16, 2008

Jacques Reeves Name: Jacques Reeves
#35
Position: CB
Age: 25
Experience: 5 years
College: Purdue
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